The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is predicted to be “extremely active,” weather forecasters at Colorado State University said Thursday.
Out of 23 projected storms, five of 11 total hurricanes could become major, with winds above 178 kph.
This estimate is above the yearly average hurricane season, which usually produces 14 named storms of varying degrees of intensity.
This uptick, according to CSU, is because of warm ocean temperatures and weather patterns that are less likely to break up the storms in the summer and fall months.
Another factor is the impending end to the El Niño weather pattern, which changes wind speeds and direction at different altitudes over the Atlantic basin. The incoming La Niña pattern enables cyclones to develop tall clouds and intense low-pressure centers.
“We anticipate a well above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean,” CSU said.
The forecast report also notes that the surge in global heat over the past year is greater than the gradual warming scientists have observed in recent decades. This can contribute to greater risks of extreme weather.
“It would take something pretty crazy for the Atlantic to not be substantially warmer than normal for the peak of the season,” which typically occurs in August and September, CSU hurricane researcher Philip Klotzbach, the forecast’s lead author, told The Washington Post. “The signal certainly points quite strongly toward a busy season this year.”
While the forecast cannot determine where the storms may land, coastal communities and energy companies are the most likely to be affected.
Fifteen percent of all of U.S. crude oil production, 5% of dry natural gas production and nearly 50% of oil refining capacity takes place in the Gulf of Mexico.
The estimate indicates there is a greater than one-in-three chance of a major hurricane making landfall somewhere on the East Coast.
The hurricane season runs from June 1 until November 20.
Some information for this report came from Reuters.