Emmys: Who Will Win, Who Should Win

Best Comedy Series

WILL WIN Ted Lasso

Ted Lasso, which won for its two prior seasons at the two most recent Emmys ceremonies, landed a category-best nine acting noms for what’s believed to be its last rodeo. But it’s got serious competition in the beloved network show Abbott Elementary, unique rookies The Bear and Jury Duty, and departing Barry and The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel. I give a slight edge to inertia. — Scott Feinberg

SHOULD WIN The Bear

When voters continue to inexcusably ignore one of the best comedies on TV (Reservation Dogs) and two of my favorite dark comedies (Succession and The White Lotus) are slotted as “dramas,” it leads to the most deserving winner being a magnificently tense and rarely overtly funny show for a season that aired more than 18 months ago. So … congrats, The Bear? — Daniel Fienberg

Best Lead Actor, Comedy Series

WILL WIN Jeremy Allen White

Set aside long shots Jason Segel (Shrinking) and Martin Short (Only Murders in the Building). Barry’s Bill Hader and Ted Lasso’s Jason Sudeikis both won twice before for their shows. But first-time nominee Jeremy Allen White has become a star through The Bear, the second season of which dropped during voting, so … yes, Chef! — S.F.

SHOULD WIN Bill Hader

Martin Short may be giving the most traditionally comedic performance in this field with Only Murders, but he can’t compete with all the angst and sentiment gifted to his competition. It’s a slim edge to Bill Hader, so often haunted and coming apart at the seams in a concluding run of Barry that took the hitman comedy series to new depths of nihilism and soul-searching. — D.F.

Best Lead Actress, Comedy Series

WILL WIN Quinta Brunson

Maisel’s Rachel Brosnahan and Dead to Me’s Christina Applegate are past winners up for their respective shows’ final seasons. Everyone watched Netflix’s Wednesday, so Jenna Ortega is a possibility. But for a second season of Abbott Elementary that was even better reviewed than its first, I expect voters to reward its Emmy-winning creator and star.  — S.F.

SHOULD WIN Christina Applegate

This is a “no wrong choices” field, and this preference may change depending on how recently I’ve watched Jenna Ortega’s viral school dance scene from Wednesday. But for now, I lean toward Christina Applegate, who gave real gravity and emotional depth to the zany convolutions in the third and final season of her Netflix murder cover-up comedy Dead to Me. — D.F.

Best Drama Series

WILL WIN Succession

It’s hard to bet against a show with nine acting noms (The Last of Us and The White Lotus), a past winner (The Crown) and an overdue show nominated for the last time (Better Call Saul). But the final season of Succession, which won for two of its three previous seasons and this season tied its own record with a whopping 14 acting noms, is in a league of its own. — S.F.

SHOULD WIN Succession

This is a great category that should come down to the final seasons of all-timers Succession and Better Call Saul. Advantage to Succession, though, for a concluding run that featured a shocking death, a heartbreaking funeral, a wildly disheartening glimpse at electoral politics and a gripping finale that went from sweet to strychnine in 90 minutes. — D.F.

Best Lead Actor, Drama Series

WILL WIN Pedro Pascal

Succession’s unprecedented three nominees are Jeremy Strong, who won for season two; Brian Cox, who had limited screen time; and Kieran Culkin, competing as a lead for the first time. If they split, the beneficiary could be Bob Odenkirk for Saul’s last season or Pedro Pascal for Last of Us’ first. Given that Saul has never won an Emmy and Pascal has two other noms this year, go with Pascal. — S.F.

SHOULD WIN Bob Odenkirk

Other than the always-great Brian Cox, who was more of a guest star, this is a ridiculously stacked category. Kieran Culkin wins the Succession runoff, but Bob Odenkirk deserves to triumph overall for what became a three-headed turn as Jimmy McGill, Gene Takavic and Saul Goodman on Better Call Saul, a great drama that doesn’t deserve a total Emmy shutout. — D.F.

Best Lead Actress, Drama Series

WILL WIN Sarah Snook

It’s Sarah Snook’s third nom for playing Shiv Roy, but first in the lead category. This time, she’s up against a promising youngster (Last of Us’ Bella Ramsey), a past winner (The Handmaid’s Tale’s Elisabeth Moss) and three vets (Bad Sisters’ Sharon Horgan, Yellowjackets’ Melanie Lynskey and The Diplomat’s Keri Russell). But it’s hard to imagine anyone but her winning. — S.F.

SHOULD WIN Sarah Snook

Elevated from supporting to lead actress for the first time after two previous noms, Sarah Snook made Shiv into the bruised-but-beating heart of the fourth and final Succession season. Perpetually overlooked and forced to make untenable choices, Shiv followed a path that was often the show’s hardest to track, with Snook giving her a uniquely chilly-yet-vulnerable edge. — D.F.

Best Limited/Anthology Series

WILL WIN Beef

The nominations are the wins for Daisy Jones & The Six, Fleishman Is in Trouble and Obi-Wan Kenobi. That leaves two Netflix shows, Beef and Dahmer — Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story, tied for the category lead with 13 noms each. Dahmer co-creator Ryan Murphy has a strong Emmy track record, but Beef was released more recently and much better reviewed. — S.F.

SHOULD WIN Beef

Netflix’s pitch-black comedy about the escalating and entirely avoidable consequences of a road rage incident captured the exposed and irritated raw nerve of 2023. Beef is so easily the class of this field, but mostly because Emmy viewers ignored more worthy contenders like Dead Ringers in favor of yet another Star Wars spinoff in Obi-Wan Kenobi. — D.F.

Best Actor, Limited/Anthology Series

WILL WIN Steven Yeun

Black Bird’s Taron Egerton and Weird: The Al Yankovic Story’s Daniel Radcliffe have a shot. But I think it’s between two guys whose shows are up for best limited/anthology series: Dahmer’s Evan Peters and Beef’s Steven Yeun. Peters won a Globe and got a SAG Award nom in 2023. For his much-better-reviewed show, Yeun just won a Globe, with a SAG nom sure to follow. — S.F.

SHOULD WIN Steven Yeun

There’s nothing wrong with Taron Egerton as TV’s most dapper prisoner or Daniel Radcliffe having a blast as popular music’s finest polka-and-parody aficionado, but this isn’t their year. Watch Danny’s slow avalanche of a meltdown in the Living Glory Church in the “I Am Inhabited by a Cry” episode of Beef and then just give this award to Steven Yeun. No need to get complicated. — D.F.

Best Lead Actress, Limited/Anthology Series

WILL WIN Ali Wong

Just once in the past decade has this award’s winner not hailed from a show that was up for best limited/anthology series, which suggests this year’s race is between Fleishman Is in Trouble’s Lizzy Caplan, Daisy Jones & The Six’s Riley Keough and Beef’s Ali Wong. Wong’s show was the most recently released, has the most noms, and streams on Netflix, which are all advantages. — S.F.

SHOULD WIN Dominique Fishback

This should have been a showdown between Swarm’s Dominique Fishback and Dead Ringers’ Rachel Weisz. At least Fishback made the cut for her mercurial performance in the darkly comedic horror story about modern fandom and emotional disconnection in the digital age. Her character evolves with every episode, and the exceptional actress charts a strange, dangerous course. — D.F.

This story first appeared in the Jan. 10 issue of The Hollywood Reporter magazine. Click here to subscribe.